Macroeconomic researcher wins Blue Chip forecasting award

Michael Cosgrove to share 2024 predictions and accept the Lawrence R. Klein Award at the March 6 event in New York.

TEMPE, Ariz. (Jan. 17, 2024) — As economic analysts continue to debate the prospects for a soft landing versus a hard fall for the U.S. economy, Michael Cosgrove, principal and founder of The Econoclast®, Inc., predicts a mild recession with more disinflation and at least 100 basis points decline in the funds rate.

Cosgrove will deliver his 2024 economic outlook, including predictions for growth and monetary policy, at a live event on Wednesday, March 6, at the University Club of New York. At the event, Cosgrove will be honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy for 2023, one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in economic forecasting. A live stream of the forecast and award ceremony will also be available, and is free for the public to view.

Register here for the virtual portion of the Lawrence R. Klein Award on Wednesday, March 6, from 7 to 8 p.m. Eastern.

The award is judged and sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, in partnership with the W. P. Carey Foundation. The winner is selected based on the accuracy of forecasts published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter, compiled and edited by Haver Analytics.

“I have participated in Blue Chip Economic Indicators for several decades, and it is an honor to receive this prestigious award,” says Cosgrove. “Economic forecasting is a humbling experience, and I am grateful to win this award and for the ability to produce useful work for clients.”

Ohad Kadan, dean of the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, will present Cosgrove his award, which will be followed by his economic forecast for the year.

“The award is based on the smallest average error for GDP [gross domestic product], CPI [consumer price index], and unemployment over the past four years,” says Professor of Economics Dennis Hoffman, director of the Office of the University Economist at ASU. “The past four years have included a plethora of hard-to-predict economic events, and Michael Cosgrove’s predictions remained especially salient. I congratulate Michael and his team at the Econoclast.”

Cosgrove has been a long-term participant in Blue Chip Economic Indicators, The Wall Street Journal survey, Western Blue Chip Economic Indicators, and Pulsenomics, and had best home price forecast at Pulsenomics in 2014.

Cosgrove is a professor emeritus at the University of Dallas, where he taught economics and published in academic journals focused on economics research. Prior to that, he worked at Gulf Oil.

Cosgrove received his PhD in agricultural economics from the Ohio State University, his master's degree from the University of Arizona, and his bachelor's degree from South Dakota State University.

During the ceremony, Cosgrove will share his latest thoughts on the U.S. economic outlook, including:

• Current challenges in macroeconomic forecasting;
• Prospects for growth through the remainder of 2024 and early 2025;
• The status of inflation and the implications for monetary policy; and
• Financial and housing market performance and risks

Media note: Please consider adding this to your community calendar. Journalists who attend as members of the virtual audience can ask questions during the Q&A section of the event.

About the W. P. Carey School of Business
The W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University is one of the top-ranked business schools in the United States. The school is internationally regarded for its research productivity and its distinguished faculty members. Students come from more than 100 countries, and W. P. Carey is represented by alumni in over 160 countries. Visit wpcarey.asu.edu.

About The Econoclast®
The Econoclast, a Dallas-based company, provides comprehensive analysis and research reports for institutional investors and corporations within a business cycle framework. The Econoclast, Inc., founded in 1979 by Michael Cosgrove, focuses on how economic trends, tax rates, dividends, oil prices, money, and inflation influence capital markets.

About Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics is a global leader in time-series data and analytical software, offering flexible delivery tools that meet the highest standards of economists, analysts, and data scientists. It is a premier provider of time series data for the global strategy, research, and quant communities, offering primary-sourced databases, a wealth of key survey and forecast data from our industry partners, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications. For more information, contact sales@haver.com.

For more information/media contact:
Shay Moser, W. P. Carey School of Business
shay.moser@asu.edu

Mike Cosgrove, The Econoclast
mikecosgrove@econoclast.com

Photo: Mike Cosgrove.