Local and U.S. economists remain positive on 2019 economy

Economic Forecast Luncheon, hear what's in store for the year ahead

TEMPE, AZ (Nov. 14, 2018) — While economic growth is likely to slow in 2019, Arizona is expected to rank among the top five states for job creation. Which local industries are booming? And with many possible outcomes for current U.S. trade disputes, what’s the potential disruption headed into 2019? What does the future hold for interest rates and stocks?

Top experts will deliver their predictions for the state and nation at the Valley’s largest and most-trusted, economic-forecasting event on Wednesday, Nov. 28, 2018.

About 1,000 people are expected to attend the 55th annual Economic Forecast Luncheon (EFL).

John Cochrane

Keynote speaker John H. Cochrane will touch on health care, environment, taxes, financial regulation, and U.S. housing. He’ll also discuss policies to support long-term growth, in each case highlighting a way out of the partisan divide.

Cochrane is a professor of finance and economics, and the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He maintains the Grumpy Economist blog.

During the luncheon, experts will deliver their 2019 economic forecast predictions

Regional, statewide, and local forecast

Lee McPheters

Lee R. McPheters, research professor of economics and director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the W. P. Carey School of Business, and editor of the Arizona and Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast publications.

  • Although growth is expected to slow somewhat in 2019, Arizona will rank among the top five states for job creation in manufacturing, construction, and professional and technical services as the economy adds some 75,000 new jobs.
  • The Arizona unemployment rate will continue to decline during 2019, dipping below 4 percent for the first time in more than a decade.
  • Phoenix will remain one of the nation’s most dynamic metro areas, accounting for 8 out of every 10 new jobs created in the state.
  • In spite of rising interest rates, strong demand will push single-family permits in the greater Phoenix area over the 25,000 mark in 2019; continuing job growth will spark some 6 million square feet of new industrial construction, and vacancy rates in multifamily, office, retail, and industrial space will remain low by historical standards.

U.S. and global economic forecast

Bart Hobijn

Bart Hobijn, professor of economics at the W. P. Carey School of Business.

  • It is “all systems go” for the U.S. economy in 2019. Though growth is expected to slow a bit in 2019, because of several temporary factors that have boosted it during this year are dissipating, the fundamentals remain strong.
  • The unemployment rate is set to decline a bit further while wage and broader compensation growth will slowly accelerate.
  • Job growth also looks to remain solid with about 170 thousand jobs a month added to nonfarm payrolls in 2019.
  • There are some wrenches that could be thrown into the forecast. First of all, stock market valuations are high compared to the underlying earnings levels and outlook. Second, the reorganization of global supply chains in response to trade disputes can negatively impact the economy. Finally, slowing global economic growth might be a drag on the U.S. economy.

Wednesday, Nov. 28, 2018
Luncheon from 11:15 a.m. to 1:15 p.m.

Phoenix Convention Center — North Ballroom
100 N. 3rd Street, Phoenix, AZ 85004
SE corner of 3rd St. and Jefferson St.

More information on the event can be found at wpcarey.asu.edu/efl.

Media note:
Prior to the luncheon, Cochrane, McPheters, and Hobijn are available for on-site, on-camera, and phone interviews from 10 to 11 a.m.

Reporters and photojournalists are asked to RSVP in advance of the event by emailing Rebecca.Ferriter@asu.edu – Communications Manager for ASU’s W. P. Carey School of Business.

About the W. P. Carey School of Business

The W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University is one of the top-ranked business schools in the United States. The school is internationally regarded for its research productivity and its distinguished faculty members, including a Nobel Prize winner. Students come from more than 100 countries and include more than 50 National Merit Scholars. Visit www.wpcarey.asu.edu.

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