Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley Wins Lawrence R. Klein Award Again

Top forecaster joins an elite group that has won the award twice and will deliver her 2021 Economic Outlook at a virtual event on Oct. 12.


TEMPE, Ariz. (Oct. 5, 2020) — Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley has won her second Lawrence R. Klein Award, regarded as one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in the field. Zentner joins four economists who have won the award twice in the more than 40 years of forecast accuracy winners.

New this year, the economist with the most accurate forecasts — four years in a row — will deliver her predictions at a virtual event on Monday, Oct. 12, from 6 to 7 p.m. EST.

During the virtual ceremony, Zentner will deliver her 2021 economic forecast, outlook, and predictions regarding:

  • The U.S. economy and how it will see its way through the second wave of COVID-19
  • Consumer spending performance through 2021
  • Job growth and the unemployment rate
  • Domestic demand in advance of a COVID-19 vaccine being delivered in 2021
  • Measures of core inflation
  • How the recovery will play out with or without further stimulus
  • How the Fed’s asset purchase program will impact rates for the foreseeable future

Zentner has had the most accurate economic forecasts among the nation's top economists for the years 2016 through 2019. She also had the most accurate economic forecasts among the nation's top economists for the years 2014 through 2017.

“I am humbled to receive this prestigious award for economic forecasting — an honor made possible through the hard work and dedication of my team,” said Zentner. “While this year has reminded us that the future is never certain, I am grateful for our ability to produce meaningful, collaborative research to help clients navigate today’s complex economic landscape.”

This also marks the third Lawrence R. Klein Award for Morgan Stanley as an organization, joining DuPont as a three-time winner. There are 50 contributing forecasters for the Blue Chip competition from leading organizations across the country, including financial institutions, manufacturing firms, consulting companies, and universities.

Zentner demonstrated amazing consistency, outshining the competitors for this year’s award, which is judged and sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. The Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter is the source of the forecasts used to select the winner.

“The award is based on the smallest average error for GDP, CPI, and unemployment over the past four years,” said Professor of Economics Dennis Hoffman, director of the L. William Seidman Research Institute at ASU’s W. P. Carey School of Business. “Ellen Zentner and her Morgan Stanley team were outstanding on predicting the economy for the whole period, and they truly nailed the 2019 forecasts, when most analysts were expecting stronger growth and higher inflation. She projected slower GDP, hit CPI exactly, and missed the unemployment rate by only two-tenths of a percentage point.”

The W. P. Carey School of Business Dean Amy Hillman will present the award to Zentner. Other VIP guests who will speak at the virtual event include Alex Triantis, Johns Hopkins Carey Business School dean and a professor of finance, and William P. Carey II, chairman of the Carey Foundation.

For more information about the Lawrence R. Klein Award or to register for the virtual event on Monday, Oct. 12, from 6 to 7 p.m. EST, visit

Established in 1976, Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators is synonymous with the latest in expert opinion on the future performance of the U.S. economy. Each month, the newsletter compiles the forecasts of 50 leading business economists for key indicators of economic growth.

Media note: Please consider adding this to your community calendar. Journalists who attend as members of the virtual audience can ask questions during the Q&A section of the event.

About the W. P. Carey School of Business
The W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University is one of the top-ranked business schools in the United States. The school is internationally regarded for its research productivity and its distinguished faculty members, including a Nobel Prize winner. Students come from more than 100 countries and W. P. Carey is represented by alumni in over 160 countries. Visit

About Ellen Zentner
Ellen Zentner holds a spot on the “Bloomberg Best” list of top forecasters. She has more than 20 years of experience as a Fed watcher and a markets-based economist. She joined Morgan Stanley in 2013 from Nomura Securities International where she served as senior economist for fixed income. Previously, she was a senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. and senior economist at the Texas State Comptroller.

Zentner serves on various advisory panels at the Federal Reserve, Treasury, American Bankers’ Association, and SIFMA. She is a director of the National Association for Business Economics and is a past president of NYABE. She holds a bachelor of business administration and a master’s degree in economics from the University of Colorado. Zentner and her husband are avid fly fishers and live in Bronx, New York.

About Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is a leading global financial services firm providing investment banking, securities, wealth management, and investment management services. With offices in more than 41 countries, the firm's employees serve clients worldwide including corporations, governments, institutions, and individuals. For more information about Morgan Stanley, please visit

For more information, contact:
Shay Moser, W. P. Carey School of Business

Paige Mandy, Morgan Stanley

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