W. P. Carey School of Business

Michael Cosgrove honored with Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecasting

Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley chief US economist, presents 2024 forecast at March 6 event.

TEMPE, Ariz. (Feb. 26, 2024) — As economic analysts continue to debate the prospects for a soft landing versus a hard fall for the U.S. economy, Michael Cosgrove, principal and founder of The Econoclast®, Inc., predicts a mild recession with more disinflation and at least 100 basis points decline in the funds rate. Cosgrove is being honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy for 2023, one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in economic forecasting.

Ellen Zentner

Cosgrove is unable to attend the New York event. Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley and two-time winner of the Klein Award, will present keynote remarks on the state of the economy at a live event on Wednesday, March 6 at the University Club of New York. A livestream of the forecast and award ceremony will also be available, and is free for the public to view.

"I have tremendous respect for Cosgrove's accomplishment and am honored to speak in his absence," says Zentner. "The Klein Award has a rich history of excellence among forecasters. Winning is truly an achievement of a lifetime." She is one of only five economists to earn the Klein Award twice.

Register here to attend the live presentation of the Lawrence R. Klein Award at the University Club of New York on March 6, from 6 to 8 p.m. Eastern.

The award is judged and sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, in partnership with the W. P. Carey Foundation. The winner is selected based on the accuracy of forecasts published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter, compiled and edited by Haver Analytics, Inc.

Mike Cosgrove

"I have participated in Blue Chip Economic Indicators for several decades and it is an honor to receive this prestigious award," says Cosgrove. "Economic forecasting is a humbling experience, and I am grateful to win this award and for the ability to produce useful work for clients."

Ohad Kadan, dean of the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, will present Cosgrove's award, which will be followed by Zentner's remarks.

"The award is based on the smallest average error for GDP, CPI, and unemployment over the past four years," says Professor of Economics Dennis Hoffman, director of the Office of the University Economist at ASU. "The past four years have included a plethora of hard-to-predict economic events, and Michael Cosgrove's projections remained especially salient. I congratulate Michael and his team at the Econoclast."

Cosgrove has been a long-term participant in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, The Wall Street Journal survey, Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast, and Pulsenomics, and had best home price forecast at Pulsenomics in 2014.

Attendees can also register to watch the livestream of the event on Wednesday, March 6, from 7 to 8 p.m. Eastern.

Media note: Please consider adding this to your community calendar. Journalists who attend can ask questions during the Q&A section of the event.

About the W. P. Carey School of Business
The W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University is one of the top-ranked business schools in the United States. The school is internationally regarded for its research productivity and its distinguished faculty members. Students come from more than 100 countries and W. P. Carey is represented by alumni in over 160 countries. Visit wpcarey.asu.edu.

About Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics is a global leader in time-series data and analytical software offering flexible delivery tools that meet the highest standards of economists, analysts and data scientists. It is a premier provider of time series data for the global strategy, research and quant communities, offering primary-sourced databases, a wealth of key survey and forecast data from our industry partners, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications. For more information, contact sales@haver.com.

For more information/media contact:
Shay Moser, W. P. Carey School of Business

First photo: Ellen Zentner.
Second photo: Michael Cosgrove.

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