Santander US Economist Wins Blue Chip Forecasting Award

Stephen Stanley to accept the Lawrence R. Klein Award and share 2025 predictions at Oct. 15 event.

TEMPE, Ariz. (Sept. 12, 2024) — With ongoing global unrest and a major U.S. election on the horizon, economic analysts continue to debate whether the U.S. economy will continue its path to a soft landing. Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander US Capital Markets, LLC (SanCap), who is being presented with the Lawrence R. Klein Award by the W. P. Carey School of Business, predicts that after a period of below trend growth late this year and early next year, the U.S. economy should skirt a recession and return to solid growth later in 2025, as Federal Reserve rate cuts should help to boost consumer and business demand.

Stanley will deliver his 2025 economic outlook, including predictions for growth and monetary policy, at a live event on Tuesday, Oct. 15, at the University Club of New York. At the event, Stanley will be honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy for 2024, one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in economic forecasting. A livestream of the forecast and award ceremony will also be available; it is free for the public to view.

Register here for the virtual portion of the Lawrence R. Klein Award on Tuesday, Oct. 15, from 7 to 8 p.m. Eastern.

The award is judged and sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, in partnership with the W. P. Carey Foundation. The winner is selected based on the accuracy of forecasts published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter, compiled and edited by Haver Analytics, Inc. Those eligible for the award are analysts from organizations whose projections were recorded in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter in January of the four prior years.

"I am extremely honored to receive this award and humbled to join the long list of outstanding forecasters who have been Klein winners over the years," says Stanley.

Ohad Kadan, dean of the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, will present Stanley his award, which will be followed by his economic forecast for the year.

"The Klein award is based on the smallest average error for GDP, CPI, and unemployment over the past four years," says Professor of Economics Dennis Hoffman, director of the Office of the University Economist at ASU. "Hard-to-predict economic events have been a mainstay over the last several years, and Stephen Stanley’s predictions remained on target despite the economic noise. I congratulate Stephen on this achievement."

Stephen Stanley is Chief U.S. Economist at Santander US Capital Markets, LLC (SanCap), the institutional broker-dealer of Santander in the United States operating under Santander Corporate & Investment Banking (Santander CIB), a Santander global division that supports corporate and institutional clients.

He has been with Santander US Capital Markets and its predecessor firm, Pierpont Securities, since March 2010. Prior to that, Mr. Stanley was Chief U.S. Economist at RBS. Throughout his career, Mr. Stanley has focused on macroeconomic analysis, Fed watching, and federal budget and Treasury financing issues. He holds a BA in economics from Washington and Lee University and an MA in economics from the University of Chicago.

During the ceremony, Stanley will share his latest thoughts on the U.S. economic outlook, including:

• Current challenges in macroeconomic forecasting
• Prospects for growth heading into 2025
• The status of inflation, the job report, and the implications for monetary policy
• Financial and housing market performance and risks

Media note: Please consider adding this to your community calendar. Journalists who attend as members of the virtual audience can ask questions during the Q&A section of the event.

About the W. P. Carey School of Business
The W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University is the largest and one of the top-ranked business schools in the United States. The school is internationally regarded for its research productivity and distinguished faculty members. Students come from more than 100 countries, and W. P. Carey is represented by alums in over 160 countries. Visit wpcarey.asu.edu.

About Santander Corporate & Investment Banking
Santander Corporate & Investment Banking (Santander CIB) is Santander’s global division that supports corporate and institutional clients, offering tailored services and value-added wholesale products suited to their complexity and sophistication, as well as to responsible banking standards that contribute to the progress of society. Visit santandercib.com.

About Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics is a global leader in time-series data and analytical software offering flexible delivery tools that meet the highest standards of economists, analysts and data scientists. It is a premier provider of time series data for the global strategy, research and quant communities, offering primary-sourced databases, a wealth of key survey and forecast data from our industry partners, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications. For more information, contact sales@haver.com.

For more information, contact:
Shay Moser, W. P. Carey School of Business
shay.moser@asu.edu

Ryan Feldman, Santander US
ryan.feldman@santander.us