What does the trough of a real estate slump look like? Phoenix metro area property owners will have time to take a close look at this unpleasant and hazardous landscape as the real estate market slides to the bottom over the next several months — and settles in for a slow, volatile recovery.

From seasoned real estate writer Steve Bergsman comes this message: Proceed with caution, be patient and realize that there are many kinds of real estate markets — each with particular potentials and pitfalls.

Sales data from March indicate that a trend change in housing prices might be underway in the beleaguered Phoenix metro market.

An anemic economic recovery will begin at the end of the year, but don't expect the pain to end anytime soon.

Phoenix metro real estate prices declined 37 percent in February compared to February 2008, but preliminary data for March and April show that the rate of decline may be slowing.

Arizona real estate markets tend to swing wildly. During boom periods, home prices accelerate precipitously, but when the bubble bursts, residential values sometimes slink all the way back to the price level at the start of cyclical upturn.

The troubled Phoenix real estate market has experienced high levels of activity this summer. With the federal tax credit ending soon, first-time home buyers have been scrambling to get into a deal. Meantime, investors anticipating a rise in prices are coming back to the market.

The Phoenix metro area housing market is closing on a record. And unlike the Olympics this has more to do with losing than winning. Back in the 1990 to 1991 years, during the last serious real estate recession that roiled Arizona, house prices on a 12-month basis declined for 17 straight months.

The overall price decline for the Phoenix metro housing market took a dramatic, 18 percent leap downward in April, which was unsettling since March numbers were already very weak.

Investors who enter the real estate sector in the midst of long up-cycles sometimes make the mistake of thinking that profitable times will last forever. When the inevitable tough times hit, those with no frame of reference become dismayed and confused.