Research

Western jobs still worsening, but worsening more slowly

With four months of figures for 2010 now available, analysts are beginning to grow (slightly) more optimistic about the employment picture for the nation and the Western states this year. The bad news is that non-farm employment is lower now than last year in practically every state and for the nation as a whole. But those who are looking for something to cheer about can find it in the year-over-year percentage changes in recent months.

Lee McPheters

2010-06-01

With four months of figures for 2010 now available, analysts are beginning to grow (slightly) more optimistic about the employment picture for the nation and the Western states this year. The bad news is that non-farm employment is lower now than last year in practically every state and for the nation as a whole.

Moreover, over-the-year job growth has been negative every month so far this year for all Western states. But those who are looking for something to cheer about can find it in the year-over-year percentage changes in recent months. Nationally, employment in April was down only by 1 percent, an improvement over the 3 percent losses recorded in January.

Worsening more slowly

Western states show a similar pattern of "worsening more slowly." The percentage losses in jobs over-the-year in April were only about one-half the losses in January in most states. Losses in Texas and Utah were less than 1 percent, and Arizona's 1.6 percent decrease in employment over-the-year in April was only one-third that earlier in the year (see table).

Year-Over-Year Monthly Job Losses Are Slowing In the Western States*

January/February (%)

Arizona: -4.9/-3.8
California: -4.6/-3.7
Colorado: -4.4/-3.7
Idaho: -3.5/-2.9
Montana: -2.3/-1.8
Nevada: -6.2/-4.6
New Mexico: -3.4/-2.7
Oregon: -3.6/-3.0
Texas: -2.7/-2.2
Utah: -2.8/-2.3
Washington: -3.8/-3.3
Wyoming: -5.0/-4.2
U.S.A.: -3.0/-2.5

March/April (%)

Arizona: -3.1/-1.6
California: -3.0/-2.3
Colorado: -3.0/-2.6
Idaho: -1.8/-1.4
Montana: -0.4/-0.9
Nevada: -4.2/-3.5
New Mexico: -1.8/-1.9
Oregon: -2.2/-1.7
Texas: -2.8/-2.3
Utah: -3.8/-3.3
Washington: -5.0/-4.2
Wyoming: -5.0/-4.2
U.S.A.: -3.6/-2.2

Forecast 2010 (%)

Arizona: -0.1
California: -1.3
Colorado: -0.4
Idaho: -0.2
Montana: 0.5
Nevada: -2.3
New Mexico: 0.0
Oregon: 0.2
Texas: 0.7
Utah: -0.6
Washington: -0.6
Wyoming: 0.0
U.S.A.: -0.5

*Year-over-year percentage change in non-farm employment; figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Compiled by W. P. Carey School of Business from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data

Although monthly job losses are diminishing, labor markets are still weaker now than last year at this time. Consider Nevada, where employment was down by 6.2 percent in January. The much smaller 3.5 percent year-over-year decline in April was welcome, but the decrease also brought the disappearance of 40,500 jobs compared to the year before.

The 2.3 percent April decrease in California was only one-half the size of the 4.6 percent dip in January, but translated into a decline of more than 325,000 jobs from the same time a year ago. For the combined first four months of 2010, the national economy has lost 2.7 million jobs compared to the same period of last year.

Western states accounted for one million of these lost jobs, or 40 percent of the national total, year-to-date. The consensus among economists is that 2010 will be another year of job losses for the nation, even if the second half brings stronger job creation than seen so far in the first half.

Among the states, the Western Blue Chip forecasters expect Texas to post the largest gain for the year, 0.7 percent. Montana employment is projected to grow by one-half of one percent over 2009. As of now, the Western forecasters foresee the year as a whole will bring job losses for Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Washington, even as monthly figures show modest improvement.

Economics