Students hit home run in sports analytics competition

Philadelphia Phillies star pitcher Cole Hamels has been the focus of trade speculation this spring, but if he were to be part of a deal, what would be the optimal swap for all parties?

Philadelphia Phillies star pitcher Cole Hamels has been the focus of trade speculation this spring, but if he were to be part of a deal, what would be the optimal swap for all parties?

That was the problem posed in the Diamond Dollars Case Competition at the 2015 Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) Analytics Conference this month in Phoenix. Five students in the W. P. Carey School’s Master of Science in Business Analytics program won, beating teams from some of the top universities in the nation. Team members include Sean Aronson (BS Finance and Economics ’14), David Bocchino, Cody Callahan (BS Marketing ’14), Emerson Frostad and Reid Smith (BS Economics ’13).

Teams were given six days to prepare their solution to the case problem and then they presented before judges at the conference. The students were asked to determine the best possible trade package for Hamels, considering present and future value. Callahan estimated that the team spent more than 60 hours on the analysis.

First, the students used multiple analytic models to predict how good the lefty Hamels will be this season and in the future. Then they calculated how much value each of the 30 teams in the MLB would realize in a trade involving Hamels. Thus allowed the students to narrow down the list to 10 teams, for which they calculated the value of the young talent on each of those teams. Finally, they came up with a trade that would be optimal for all involved.

Teams presented their solutions at the SABR conference before a panel of judges drawn from major league teams and consultants.

“It’s always a tough competition,” Callahan said. He and Aronson had observed the competition when they were undergraduate interns at SABR.

The other schools represented this year in the graduate division included: University of Alabama-Manderson Graduate School of Business; Carnegie Mellon-Tepper School of Business; University of Chicago-Booth School of Business; DePaul University; University of Nevada, Las Vegas-Lee Business School; Pepperdine University-Graziadio School of Business and Management; University of San Francisco and Stanford University.

Only one team member has on-field experience in baseball. Emerson played minor league baseball for 10 years, but the rest had just high school or club experience. But the competition proved that all five can contribute to a winning season. With graduation coming up in May, that’s great exposure, Callahan said.

So what was that optimal trade? The Boston Red Sox: Henry Owens, Manuel Margot, and Eduardo Rodriguez to the Phillies and Hamels to Boston.

Photo from left: Vince Gennaro (President of SABR), David Bocchino, Reid Smith, Cody Callahan, Sean Aronson, Emerson Frostad.