Report: Most economists predict a recession by 2020

A new report from Dennis Hoffman, the director of the L. William Seidman Research Institute, shares where the economic doubts come from and how the Valley could be affected.

While economic strength has been reported over the past six to eight years — from fewer Americans unemployed and healthy GDP growth to strong retail sales — concern around the slowing global economy and the threat of tariffs could discontinue the positive trends. Professor of Economics and Director of the L. William Seidman Research Institute Dennis Hoffman shares where the concern comes from and how Arizona plays into it.

In this article published June 12, 2019, on 91.5 KJZZ:

Tariffs have two major negative impacts. There's the price impact, as consumers will pay more for goods that are exposed to tariffs. It also puts uncertainty in the minds of business owners. They don't know where to invest capital. The administration says, 'It's easy. Just invest in the United States, and you don't have to worry.' Well, what if some of their products are destined to foreign countries? What if some of their competitors invest in Mexico or invest in Asia? If they've invested in the U.S., they've got to compete with people who have invested abroad. And what if tariffs don't manifest themselves under a new administration in two or four years? Uncertainty is a big negative ... part of the attraction for companies to locate in Arizona is having the proximity to Mexico where they can source some of their components. Will this continue if businesses foresee a threat about closing the Mexican border or putting a tariff on Mexico?

– Dennis Hoffman, professor of economics and director of the L. William Seidman Research Institute