Arizona unemployment rate fell in May, but is it a real indication of economic turnaround?

Since the COVID-19 pandemic hit, we've seen case numbers, deaths, and unemployment rise. Then in June, we got good news on the labor market front. Is it any real indication of an economic turnaround? Lee McPheters, research professor of economics, answers.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic hit, we've seen case numbers, deaths, and unemployment rise. Then in June, we got some good news on the labor market front. Is it any real indication of an economic turnaround? KJZZ reached out to Lee McPheters, research professor of economics, for answers.

KJZZ June 23, 2020:

If we added 40 to 45,000 new jobs every month going forward, we would end up replacing all the lost jobs. But right now we're down over 160,000 jobs. The expectation is that we may add jobs as the economy continues to expand, but I don't think we're going to be seeing it at the rate of 45,000 a month. It would be a surprise if it averages 10 to 15,000 a month. I think we're going to end the year still down somewhere in the range of about maybe 100, 150,000 jobs, below what we saw for last year. It's going to take another year, year and a half to finally replace all of these lost jobs.

– Research Professor of Economics Lee McPheters is also director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center