"Arizona is stuck in a vicious cycle right now," says Lee McPheters, research professor at the W. P. Carey School of Business and director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center. "Homes come onto the market from foreclosure and that weakens prices.

"Polymath" is the Greek word for Renaissance man — one who excels at many things. But if, centuries ago, society needed a Da Vinci or a Franklin, the grand challenges of today call for teams of experts.

Tod C.

Each month at the Economic Club of Phoenix luncheon, a W. P. Carey School of Business expert analyzes economic conditions in Arizona and in the nation. On February 17, Dean Robert Mittelstaedt reminded his audience that this recovery is different.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released an update of its World Economic Outlook. The current forecast by the IMF for the U.S. economy calls for real output (Gross Domestic Product or GDP) to increase by 3.0 percent in 2011 and then slip back to 2.7 percent growth in 2012.

According to the preliminary estimate from the BEA, the overall U.S. economy grew by 2.9 percent in year 2010 compared to the previous year. The 2.9 percent gains for 2010 were the strongest in the past four years.

Since 1980 China's economy has grown at an average rate of 9.8 percent a year — that's compared to 2-3 percent for developed economies like the U.S.

Measuring the performance of workers on an assembly line is simple: Count the objects produced and find out how long the process took. That should reveal the productivity of the factory workers. But how do you determine the performance of knowledge workers?

Those looking for good news in the jobs data became more optimistic as the second half of 2010 unfolded. Starting in July, payroll employment figures for each month were up compared to the same month in the year before.

The newly released census reports that Arizona's population was just about 6.4 million as of April 1, 2010 — a number considerably lower than estimated. In fact, the Census Bureau's own 2009 estimate was 204,000 too high, and the Arizona Department of Commerce overshot reality by 291,000.