As the calendar approaches the mid-year mark, the economy through the first half appears on track to exceed earlier expectations, thanks to increased spending by consumers and the willingness of businesses to build inventories and invest in new equipment and software.

With four months of figures for 2010 now available, analysts are beginning to grow (slightly) more optimistic about the employment picture for the nation and the Western states this year.

How confident are you that you understand background facts on economic issues? For the fourth year running, members of the Economic Club of Phoenix were quizzed on their grasp of economic fundamentals at their final luncheon of the season, on May 18.

Arizona employment bottomed out at the end of 2009, after a loss of nearly 300,000 jobs from the peak during 2007. But have we seen the end of the recession? Maybe not, if we are going to evaluate this current cycle in a longer term context, based on annual data.

Economic indicators have been improving, albeit slowly, since the summer of 2009, confirming that the economy is on the mend. However, most observers likely would agree that full recovery — a return to pre-recession activity levels — won't happen anytime soon.

Jim Owens, chairman and chief executive officer of Caterpillar Inc., is "concerned that the U.S.

Those who were not expecting consumers to play much of a role in the recovery have been pleasantly surprised by recent bullish reports from the stores and malls.

We've heard since the middle of last year that the recession is over. Why, then, do people still seem so pessimistic? Why are consumers still so restrained? Why is the housing market still weak?

Everyone knows that Arizona has been mired in a budget crisis — worse, even, than in many other states — for three years now. But last summer, the Governor's office and the Legislature announced that the budget (for fiscal year 2010) was finally balanced.

Recovery from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression remains incomplete, but most experts concur that the worst is behind us. Now economists, policy makers and analysts alike are asking, how did we get here?