William Polk: What Is the true cost of the Iraq War?

William Polk has an impressive resume as a historian, policy adviser and diplomat. But when he spoke at the W. P. Carey School's Economic Club of Phoenix recently, Polk tailored his message for a business audience, proposing that the war in Iraq calls for the same kind of sober analysis that business people apply to problems in their fields. A careful look at the facts, he said, reveals costs that are not obvious or have been hidden.

William Polk has an impressive resume as a historian, policy adviser and diplomat. But when he spoke at the W. P. Carey School's Economic Club of Phoenix recently, Polk tailored his message for a business audience. Polk said that the war in Iraq calls for the same kind of sober analysis that business people apply to problems in their fields.

He said a careful look at the facts reveals costs that are not obvious or have been hidden from the American people. Polk served in the Kennedy Administration as a Middle East policy expert and was on the management team during the Cuban missile crisis. He said he learned an invaluable lesson from that weekend in October 1962.

"What I learned at that time, that has stuck with me ever since, is that one must be absolutely honest in facing every issue, as most of you in business and banking and so forth know much better than I," he said. Despite somewhat rosier reports in the press during the past few months and optimistic assessments by military and administration officials, Polk sees little hope for a positive outcome for the United States in Iraq if our nation stays on the same course.

Polk points to the dismal track record countries have had in trying to govern through military occupation. He said it began with our own American Revolution. The trend continued in the post-World War II geopolitical scene with the French in Algeria, United States in Vietnam, and the Soviets in Afghanistan.

Human costs

The week before Polk spoke, the U.S. had suffered a total of 3,958 deaths in the Iraq War and another 482 in Afghanistan. By way of comparison, from 1964 to 1975 the United States lost 47,424 in combat and suffered another 10,785 in other deaths in the theater. But Americans are bearing greater casualties then the death figures from Iraq and Afghanistan suggest, Polk said. It's harder to find a precise figure on the number of American troops who have been wounded, he said.

The figure that finds its way into most mainstream media accounts is about 30,000. But, Polk said, that accounts for only a fraction of the wounded. He said because of the nature of guerrilla warfare, many U.S. soldiers who are not considered wounded have suffered concussions. "It's now believed that about one in every 10 U.S. soldiers and Marines — roughly 500,000 men and women — have been affected," Polk said.

Many will never fully recover or be properly treated, he said. The effects will be felt over the long haul. "They will be unable to function normally," he said, "so side effects will ripple through our communities — divorces, inability to function as a parent, anger and despair will be noted." The estimated cost for treating concussion per victim over the course of a lifetime will range from $600,000 to $5 million, he added.

Polk said it is more difficult to get a solid figure on the number of soldiers who have lost limbs or have been left paralyzed from combat. The best available figure for how many soldiers have lost limbs is around 8,000. "As far as I've been able to find, no statistics have been compiled on the number of people paralyzed," he said. The U.S. Surgeon General estimates that about one in three troops who have served in this war suffer from post traumatic stress disorder.

The biggest threat

Polk said that as alarming as those statistics are, there has been another ominous development for our fighting men and women: the United States is using depleted uranium in bombs and shells. "We use it because uranium is a very heavy metal which is much more capable of penetrating armor than steel," he said. At normal temperatures, depleted uranium is not really dangerous, Polk said. But when the bomb or shell explodes the heat changes the uranium into an aerosol of uranium oxide.

The uranium oxide becomes a fine dust that can be absorbed into the body in a number of ways, including inhalation and ingestion of exposed food. Researchers suspect that the dust is linked to kidney damage, cancers, chronic fatigue, respiratory and heart problems, and digestive organ damage among people exposed to uranium oxide. Polk suggested that the future could hold thousands of cases of cancer from the exposure of troops in Iraq.

The depleted uranium shells were also used in the 1991 Gulf War. There have been reports of high incidences of cancer in veterans of that conflict, although no clinical study has found a link with depleted uranium. Iraqi doctors complained of high incidences of cancer following the fighting in 1991. Depleted uranium also has been mentioned as a possible cause for Gulf War Syndrome.

Other costs

One of the biggest costs of the war, Polk said, is the damage to America's standing in the world: "Everywhere you go there is increasing distrust and growing anger toward America," Polk said. Public opinion polls show approval of American falling throughout Europe. Outside of Europe, it's even worse. Eight of 10 Muslims worldwide "believe our intent is to destroy their religion," he said.

When he traveled in Africa and Asia, in the past, Polk said, the danger he faced "was the villagers might fight over who would get to entertain me for the evening. Now if I went, I'm apt to be shot at." In Iraq, every faction wants us out, Polk said. Being tied to torture is a "stain" on our reputation and prevents America from speaking with moral authority.

Then there's the dollar and cents costs starting with oil. Oil was about $27 a barrel when the conflict with Iraq started, Polk said. The day after Polk spoke, oil closed at $95.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Each $5 rise in the price of a barrel of oil costs the U.S. economy about $17 billion a year, he said.

From the Fiscal Year 2002 to Fiscal Year 2008 the U.S. appropriated $607 billion for the Iraq War, far outstripping the original $50 billion the Bush administration said the conflict would cost. "We've been borrowing at a staggering rate," Polk said. "Our national debt has grown about 70 percent in the last six years." This led to the U.S. dollar taking a plunge, particularly against the Euro.

Exit strategy

Polk said he does not believe the United State should "cut and run." He teamed with former South Dakota Senator George McGovern, the 1972 Democratic presidential nominee, on an orderly plan for the United States to leave that the two detailed in a book "Out of Iraq." The gist of the plan is that the some sort of small, multinational security force — made of soldiers from Arab states — would serve for a couple of years with Iraqi approval while the U.S. forces transitioned out of the country.

Meanwhile, the Iraqis would train a national security force. The United States would pay for those forces as well as helping to rebuild the country and leaving and destroying its "enduring bases." Iraqi labor would be used to rebuild the country, alleviating unemployment. The costs would still be a fraction of what the United States is paying to occupy Iraq, the authors write.

Been there

Polk is no stranger to the peace process particularly in the Middle East. And he's no stranger to Iraq. Like President Bush, Polk grew up in West Texas — in Polk's case, Fort Worth. He attended New Mexico Military Institute in Roswell and worked for a newspaper in Rome. His brother George also was involved in journalism. He worked for CBS and was killed in Greece in the late 1940s.

The George Polk Awards, among the most prestigious in the field, are named for him. He is a graduate of Harvard and Oxford and also studied at the University of Baghdad and the American University of Cairo. While working for the State Department he helped broker the peace settlement between France and Algeria, and wrote the first draft of a settlement for ending the Six Day War in 1967.

Polk said he has been asked by Republicans and Democrats in Congress to help prepare legislation aimed at getting America out of Iraq. "I spent a good deal time with our representatives," he said. "The first thing one hears from them is their fear of not being thought to support our troops. That has become a kind of mantra. It partly explains why Congress is not playing the role in foreign affairs it's constitutionally obligated to play."

In this vacuum, Polk said, he sees signs that neo-conservatives will commit us to other conflicts in places such as Iran, Iraq, Pakistan or Latin America. He cites how the doctrine of "the long war" was spelled out in Department of Defense documents. "Is one Iraq after another to be our future?" he said. "That depends on how much you and I care."

Bottom Line:

• U.S. casualty figures that are reported by mainstream media miss the mark by miles; they do not take to account concussions and grossly underestimate the wider impact of the war.
• Polk believes the use of depleted uranium in ordnance will create health problems for soldiers that might not show up for years.
• The war has drained America's reservoir of goodwill around the world.
• Polk said pulling out without a plan is wrong, but he and McGovern have come up with a program that is orderly, cost-effective and corrective of some of the damage that's been done to the United States' reputation.