Top forecaster Zentner sees two Fed hikes in 2019

Ellen Zentner

Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist and a managing director at Morgan Stanley, has won the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate economic forecasts among the nation's top economists for the past four years. She outshined some 50 competitors for this year’s award, which is judged and sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business.

On Oct. 17, 2018, Zentner discussed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy in 2019 on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

We think they will hike twice through June. By the time they come into that September meeting to debate whether they should hike again or not, the shape of growth if our forecasts hold true will show the economy is slowing back toward 2 percent. This is the other side of fiscal stimulus when that stimulus fades. That's going to be evidence that they must be around neutral, and enough of them will say, 'Let's pause here and take a look around before deciding whether we need to be restrictive.'

Ellen Zentner, managing director and chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley