ASU economist: Pandemic, government response muddy economic outlook

KJZZ's The Show spoke with ASU economist Bart Hobijn about how challenging it is to look ahead when we remain in the eye of the pandemic’s storm.

KJZZ's The Show spoke with ASU economist Bart Hobijn about how challenging it is to look ahead when we remain in the eye of the pandemic’s storm.

In this story aired Dec. 2, 2020, on The Show:

The forecasting of economic activity in a pandemic like this works in two ways largely. One is to think about the long run. Do we think that this pandemic is actually going to have an effect on the economy after the vaccine is presumably introduced and the pandemic is over? Are we going to go back to the path that we were on, or are there reasons to believe we might be falling short of that? Most forecasts on the medium to long run suggest we're going to fall a little short of that, 2 or 3 percentage points because of the long-run impact this pandemic will have on consumer demands, but also on productivity where businesses will start adjusting to make sure that they are covered and are prepared in case a future pandemic happens. And then on top of that: the short run. There's a lot of uncertainty there. A lot of people look at the path of the virus outbreak, how people respond to that using cellphone and retail data.

Top photo: Professor of Economics Bart Hobijn shares the outlook for the global and national economy at the virtual 2021 Economic Forecast Luncheon — hosted by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University and sponsored by PNC Bank — on Dec. 1.